The green shoots of Spring

We’re in phase three!

And believe me that is good news!

Well-respected recruitment expert Roger Tweedy from the REC has drawn up a model showing the stages – from a recruiter’s point of view – of a recession. This is based on interviews with veteran recruiters who’ve weathered three recessions. (ACR has an input into the monthly report on jobs published by REC and KPMG).

Briefly, the model goes like this:
Phase 1: Fall in permanent business and rise in temp/contract business
Phase 2: Continued fall in permanent, fall in temp and slowing down in public sector
Phase 3: Rise in temp and contracts and increase in permanent business
Phase 4: Full recovery and growth

Another well known and knowledgeable recruiter Bill Boorman has charted these phases during the current recession. Phase 1 happened during the back end of last year. The collapse of Woolies, the snow in January, early bank holidays and Fred Goodwin’s pension all contributed to a decline in employer confidence with temp and perm markets both at a standstill – phase 2 – in January, February and March.

But…..
That’s changing. It’s something we’ve noticed over the last four weeks and something Bill Boorman has recognised as a national trend. Temp and contract clients are reporting slight – but continuing – increases in business levels. Permanent clients are also reporting more deals being done. Decisions on hiring are taking time but they ARE coming through – companies are starting to consider if now is the time to start rebuilding headcount to capitalise on recovery as it comes. And that means – we’re in phase three!

There does seem to be a consensus in business that Roger Tweedy’s phase 4 will come next Spring. That feels like a long way off. But for now, after the pain of phase 1 and 2, phase 3 is very welcome and we will be doing everything we can to capitalise on it for our clients, candidates and ourselves.